Where geopolitics is pushing capital.

A daily map of what changed, why markets care, and what would prove the thesis wrong.

What changed in the latest edition → Follow a standing thesis →

THE LATEST DISPATCH

Sticky core inflation pushed the 10-year Treasury yield past 5 percent. Oil dipped toward $90 and came back.

Issues from November 11 to November 14 showed our crude rule as not met. It was met on November 10 and we missed it.

Read the latest issue

This is a regime map, not a trade sheet.

BEYOND THE HEADLINE

Recent coverage

Explore the archive

ON THE RECORD

We keep the receipts.

See every version of the regime view
  1. Every regime change is dated.

    Each version of the regime view carries the date and the edition that argued for it.

  2. Earlier wording stays visible.

    A new version leaves the wording it replaced on the record, struck through, beside the wording that replaced it.

  3. Corrections are documented.

    When we withdraw a figure or a statement, the issue that withdraws it says so in plain words.

THE COVERAGE MAP

Connected forces.
A wider perspective.

Read across the fault lines.
Follow the connections between them.

THE DAILY BRIEF · FREE

See the regime before
the narrative catches up.

  1. What changed
  2. How it connects
  3. What the market confirmed
  4. What would change the view